📊 Macro Intelligence Dashboard

Real-time macro-economic signals from FRED (St. Louis Fed) and US Treasury. All data is public, keyless, updated daily.

+0.41%

2s10s Yield Spread
Normal

265bps

HY Credit Spread (OAS)

81bps

IG Credit Spread (OAS)

4.1%

Unemployment Rate

3.5%

CPI YoY Inflation

Recession Probability

+5.4%

M2 Money Supply YoY

📈 US Treasury Yield Curve ✓ Normal (upward-sloping)

3.83%1M

3.89%3M

3.95%6M

4.11%1Y

4.34%2Y

4.52%5Y

4.77%10Y

5.25%20Y

5.25%30Y

What this means: The yield curve shows how much the US government pays to borrow money at different time horizons. Normally, longer-term borrowing costs more (upward slope). When short-term rates exceed long-term rates (inverted), it signals that markets expect economic slowdown — this has predicted every US recession for the past 50 years.

💳 Credit Spreads Extra yield investors demand above Treasuries

High Yield (Junk) OAS

265bps

Normal: <350bps · Stress: 350-500bps · Crisis: >500bps

Investment Grade OAS

81bps

Normal: <100bps · Elevated: 100-150bps · Stress: >150bps

What this means: Credit spreads measure the extra return investors demand for lending to corporations rather than the US government. Wide spreads signal fear of corporate defaults — a leading indicator of tighter financial conditions and potential market stress.

🎯 Recession Probability

Smoothed US Recession Probability (FRED RECPROUSM156N). <20% = low risk · 20-50% = elevated · >50% = recession likely.

📦 Inflation (CPI)

3.5%

CPI All Urban Consumers, Year-over-Year. Fed target: 2.0% · Elevated: >2.5% · Hot: >4%.

Source: FRED (St. Louis Fed) — public domain. Yield curve from US Treasury FiscalData API. Updated daily. Not investment advice.